In order of least to most likely:
- Optical Illusions
- Aliens
- Human technology
- Sensory Mirages
Illusions
The least likely, but still possible explanation, is that they are some sort of reflection and/or distortion of light. The atmosphere is not simply an empty clear box of air. There are many different molecular gasses present and many different densities of those gasses in the air. A distortion in the air, just like a wave breaking on the shore, can move much faster than an object in the air. If a wave of density happens to reflect or refract light in a certain way it might look like a ball of light moving quickly through the air.
This explanation also explains why UFOs might seem to "follow" airplanes. If the reflection is coming from the plane, or is changing in proportion to how they are moving through the air it would appear to be following them. What would be most helpful in these situations would be if there was another observer (such as another plane) and the two views could be triangulated with the phenomenon. Obviously this would give a great deal more information and could reveal if the visual phenomenon has a three-dimensional shape that is consistent from all sides, or if it is a two-dimensional reflection of observer.
I mostly assume this is the least possible explanation because it is something that engineers and scientists would probably look into first, but most of the phenomenon seem to be reported by pilots, not engineers or scientists who would know enough about how light moves in dielectric materials to have a good sense of what is actually strange or simply unusual.
Aliens
Despite what it may sound like, the idea that it could be some sort of alien aircraft is not odd at all. In fact, it would be very weird if there WEREN'T a bunch of alien probes buzzing around the Earth's atmosphere. There are billions and billions of planets out there, many surrounding suns that are much older than ours. Even if evolution happened to move slightly faster on another planet by a few million years the universe should be teaming with automated robotic probes - even if a single other alien civilization existed a few million years before us.
If there ARE alien civilizations in our galaxy it is possible they are not only aware of each other, but also of us. It would certainly behoove any alien civilization to get as much information as possible about other life in the universe. Not only to keep an eye on our civilization, but - more invaluably - to learn about how life evolved on our planet. Taking detailed long-term readings of the atmosphere, surface, and oceans could give them important information about the universal properties of life, and possibly give them insight into both how to use any evolutionary advantages Earth might have for their own benefit, but also how to negate any harms life on Earth might pose to their own form of life if we ever are able to venture beyond our solar system.
Currently the most likely way we would interact with another star system would be by sending automated/robotic probes. We are only a few decades away from being able to send a probe to Alpha Centauri that could get there in twenty years. The problem, of course, is the increasing capabilities any civilization has for interstellar travel comes with the increasing power to completely destroy all life on our planet. We could just as easily destroy ourselves as ever establish a non-Earth colony for Earth life.
This is all to say that it is completely possible UFO's are from aliens, however the one reason they are most likely NOT alien related convinces me they are not: the fact they seem to be "hiding" from us. If UFO's were actually from an alien species they would not be so difficult to pin down.
The fact that these things are constantly moving at high speeds to conveniently stay out of focus for our cameras is one thing, but that we haven't seen anyone post clear photos of an encounter on Instagram or TikTok is silly. We are not hiding ourselves from monkeys. We are not concerned we might upset "bee society" by taking a hike in the mountains. Aliens are not going to spend all their time and effort just to hide from us. Maybe they don't want us to discover their technology (by perhaps having some sort of self-destruct mechanism if the craft failed), but they wouldn't care if we took a photograph of their craft. That is just silly.
Human Technology
It is definitely possible that some of the UFO's represent some new high tech airplane or drone. However, I would argue that most of the maneuvers performed by the UFO's on the tapes released by the Air Force would represent technology so advanced that the economy and society that incorporated them into their everyday infrastructure would benefit MUCH more than simply using the technology for spy planes.
I would say there is a limited sort of human technologies that could be responsible for the UFOs, and if they ARE responsible for most of the UFO's it would be in combination with optical illusions. The ONLY way that a government could develop leap-frog technologies that other scientists and engineers would be unaware of is if they discovered some sort of alien technology and reverse-engineered it somehow. Otherwise the US government (or whatever government) must have whole branches of scientific knowledge (requiring four or eight year degrees to comprehend) that have somehow stayed under wraps for decades. No way.
Complex Mirages
While a mirage is technically another kind of optical illusion, what I mean by "mirage" here is a bit different. When you see a mirage in the desert you see light bounce off moving air in a way that mimics how light bounces off water. This can give the illusion that there is water on the road near the horizon. What I mean when I say "complex mirage" is the possibility that what we are seeing is aspects of phenomenon we are completely unaware of but which we attribute to flying objects simply because we lack the understanding of what is actually going on.
This is different from illusions which we might have the knowledge and understanding to explain if we have all the facts. What I am talking about is completely unknown properties of the atmosphere, space, and the universe itself.
We hear scientists talk about "dark matter" and "dark energy" all the time. The stats that dark energy is about 67% of the universe and dark matter is 27% (normal energy and matter making only 5%) seems to just wash over us most of the time. However, the fact of the matter (Ha!) is that we have almost no idea how dark matter might interact with normal matter, how it would move, if it would distort air enough to cause a visible phenomena or if it would couple with other matter and energy nearby. It is not even that it is likely or unlikely it is literally that we have no idea what dark matter and energy is. And those are just two things that we KNOW we don't know about - imagine what else we might find out about the universe.
So What Are They?
I highly doubt most, if not all, of the UFO sightings have anything to do with alien life forms (or angels or magic), but I suspect they DO represent somethings which we don't have any sense about in our universe. I think it is something that we are only seeing one aspect of. I think it is MUCH more likely that UFOs simply represent some aspect of the universe we don't understand than they are some sort of flying craft of any sort or are simply illusions.
There is almost certainly life on other planets, but any probe they send to Earth is going to either be completely undetectable or is not going to be "hiding" from us. UFO's are almost certainly not aliens.
I hope that the government widens the scope of their UFO research. They need to bring in actual scientists and engineers who can perform rigorous scientific tests and develop instruments specifically designed to learn more about them. The nice thing about things we don't understand is that it represents the possibility to obtain new knowledge. Who knows what we might learn if we looked into them properly!
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